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Experts agree, this season of weather will be one for the history books. With an impending super El Niño threatening to send temperatures sky rocketing, many people can be left with questions.
An El Niño can only be declared if the ocean temperature in a certain area in the Pacific is more than 0.5 degrees above the average. Forecasts are currently showing a trend in the warmer direction, with current temperatures along the pacific equator are more than a degree warmer than usual.
The effects are global, with countries like Peru, East Africa, Central Asia and some of southern North America all potentially facing increased wildfire risks, high temperatures and droughts. Areas like Australia and Indonesia could also be facing above-average wildfire risks.
For Alberta specifically, this could spell trouble for food production, among other climate concerns. Canada relies on a decent amount of importing for it’s food, from multiple areas of the world. And those regions where droughts could be a factor, could see the agriculture production cut, spelling trouble for food insecure regions across the globe.
The ultimate issue at hand? For Albertans, many of whom have food on their growing list of high cost expenses, could see most types of goods come with a decent price increase, driven by scarcity.
In what would normally be good news, because of El Niño’s time (can last between 12-18 months), the winter season in Canada and Alberta could be affected, with warmer winters, more rain and less snow for the mountains. The main concern here, being the increased risk of flooding, between rainfall and melting events.
Scientists say, with more moisture in the air and ground (because of increased rainfall), subsequent extreme weather events like thunderstorms could see more energy for big weather events.
Another less-seen factor, will be the study of coral reefs this season. With reefs already sensitive to temperature changes, the super El Niño, according to scientists should have big increases in the deterioration of coral reefs.
Another factor becomes Alberta’s winter season. With the effects of El Niño taking about a season to really come through, concern for Alberta could come during the winter months, with less than ideal snowpacks, bodies of water not freezing all the way through, as well as flood risk.
With so much misinformation hanging around the Internet, we spoke with Dr. Bill Merryfield, Research Scientist, Climate Research Directorate and included his full, unedited responses about what exactly the El Niño is and what makes this one super.
We asked Dr. Merryfield about the effects Albertans could feel besides the increasing temperature.
We also asked about the relative strength of this El Niño compared to years past.
Dr. Merryfield talked to us about the level of concern Albertans SHOULD have regarding the super El Niño.
People are reminded to always stay up to date with weather alerts, wildfire alerts and fire bans as the dry summer season begins.
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